The transition trap: Why clean energy needs more than technology?

PHOTO

There was a time when the biggest question in climate conversations was “what technology will save us?” That era is ending. The technologies exist. Solar and wind are affordable. Green hydrogen is real. Carbon capture is proven. Yet the energy transition—especially in the Gulf—is moving slower than ambition suggests. Why?

Because we have built tools but not systems. The trap is not technological. It is structural.

At this year’s Oman Petroleum & Energy Show (OPES), voices from government, industry, and finance agreed: it is not the lack of solutions that hinders progress—it is the absence of the enabling conditions that allow those solutions to scale. This is the great paradox of our time: we have what we need, yet we struggle to use it at speed.

WHEN READINESS MEETS RESISTANCE

Across the Gulf, the ambition is undeniable. Oman has awarded land for eight green hydrogen mega-projects in Al Wusta and Dhofar, aiming to produce one million tonnes annually by 2030. Saudi Arabia is building one of the world’s largest carbon capture hubs in Jubail. The UAE has reached over 50 GW of clean energy capacity through Masdar and is pushing hard into green fuels and advanced solar. Qatar has deployed its first large-scale solar plant and committed to capture nine million tonnes of CO₂ annually by 2035.

These are real, capital-intensive projects. But when you speak to the people behind them, the message is sobering: deals are signed, infrastructure is planned, but execution is slow. Permitting is unclear. Offtake agreements are missing. Risk-sharing mechanisms are weak. The projects are world-class. The frameworks are not.

THE GLOBAL BLUEPRINT

Elsewhere in the world, the difference lies not in technology, but in policy. In the United States, the Inflation Reduction Act has triggered more than $280 billion in private clean energy investments in under two years—fueled by tax credits, domestic content rules, and production-based incentives. In Europe, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is not only reshaping global trade flows—it is compelling industries from Turkey to China to measure and reduce their emissions. In Germany, power market reform is underway to reward grid flexibility and build hydrogen-ready capacity.

These moves show how political clarity translates into market activity. Investors don’t respond to slogans—they respond to structure. The countries moving fastest are those building architecture around ambition.

What is most encouraging—and urgent—is that private industrial players are already leaning forward. In steel, cement, chemicals, aviation—firms are no longer waiting for regulation to arrive. They are investing in carbon capture, electrification, sustainable fuels. In Sweden, a new generation of green steelmakers is emerging. In Canada, global firms are retrofitting old plants with clean hydrogen technology. In France and the Netherlands, companies are scaling carbon capture linked to port clusters and industrial zones.

But these pioneers also face a dilemma. Their projects cost more—at least for now. Their products are greener—but the markets do not yet reward them. This is where Gulf policymakers must act. Not just to fund innovation, but to build the rules, rewards, and risk buffers that allow these technologies to be commercially viable.

THE GULF’S COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

The region has three unmatched assets: patient capital, integrated infrastructure, and strong project delivery capability. No one builds faster than the Gulf when the incentives align. But clean energy requires a different mindset. It’s not about building a single refinery or solar plant. It’s about orchestrating entire systems—from permitting and certification to financing and export policy.

The Gulf doesn’t need to copy Europe’s carbon pricing or America’s tax credits. It needs its own model. A model that reflects its resource base, fiscal tools, and long-term investment horizon. But it also needs to be clear, bankable, and fast.

If Oman, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar want to lead the clean energy economy—not just participate in it—they must treat policy and market design as national infrastructure. Because in the energy transition, rules are infrastructure.

A CALL TO REWIRE

The clean energy economy won’t emerge on its own. It must be built. That means rewiring not just how we generate energy—but how we price it, how we value emissions reductions, how we permit innovation, and how we reward climate-aligned products.

Otherwise, we risk becoming a region of world-class pilot projects that never scale. A place of vision, but not velocity.

The transition trap is real. And the way out is structural.