(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

LITTLETON, Colorado - Turkey is one of the world's fastest-growing power markets, and exporters of natural gas and LNG have eyed the country as a key potential growth market. But rapid expansions to Turkey's clean power supplies may leave them disappointed.

Surging solar capacity lifted Turkey's solar-powered electricity supplies above gas-fired electricity output for the first time last month, while the country's first ever nuclear plant is due to start production within months.

Turkey is also aggressively deploying utility-scale batteries to store surplus power from wind and solar farms that can be dispatched during demand peaks, and is targeting 80 gigawatt hours (GWh) of battery storage by 2030.

This combination of rising clean power supplies alongside expanding storage capacity looks set to limit Turkey's use of gas and other fossil fuels in power production, and may leave gas market bulls needing to look elsewhere for growth potential.

GROWTH PATH

Turkey's economy has expanded by an average of 4.7% a year since 2019, which is over four times the growth rate of the Euro zone and nearly twice the growth rate of the global economy over the same time frame, data from the World Bank shows.

The country's electricity demand jumped by 14% from 2019 to 2024, in stark contrast to the roughly 5% contraction in electricity demand across the European Union over that same period, data from Ember shows.

Government spending on infrastructure and the expansion of heavy industry and manufacturing have been the main drivers of Turkey's electricity demand, which topped 340 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2024, according to Ember.

The re-shoring of certain heavy industries from other parts of Europe - such as some steel and cement production from Germany - has also helped expand energy consumption in Turkey within the last few years.

GAS CUTS

Despite this steady expansion to power use, natural gas is being squeezed out of Turkey's generation system by other power sources, and gas-fired generation has declined for the past three years.

Coal-fired power stations are the single largest electricity source in Turkey, and accounted for 36% of the country's utility electricity supplies last year, according to Ember.

Key to coal's staying power has been cheap shipments from Russia, which has struggled to find willing buyers for its energy products since getting slapped with sanctions in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine.

To ensure steady purchases by Turkey's power suppliers, Russian coal exporters have discounted their prices compared to other coal vendors, and as a result have secured a dominant share of Turkey's coal purchases since 2022.

Indeed, Russia has supplied roughly 88% of Turkey's coal imports so far in 2025, compared to an average share of 24% from 2018 to 2021, data from commodity intelligence firm Kpler shows.

That steady supply of cheap coal, however, has resulted in reduced demand for pricier natural gas in Turkey, with gas-fired plants supplying only 19% of Turkey's electricity last year.

Hydro dams supplied another 22%, while solar farms (7%) and wind farms (11%) were Turkey's next largest electricity sources.

ON THE REBOUND?

Over the first half of 2025, Turkey's gas-fired power generation jumped by 52% from the opening half of 2024, which has provided gas market bulls with reason for optimism.

However, the recent peaks in gas-fired generation remain below previous gas-fired production spurts, and suggest that Turkey's power firms remain reticent about relying too heavily on gas for electricity production.

In addition, clean power supplies continue climbing, with solar generation so far this year jumping by 47% from a year ago and combined output from solar and wind farms generating a record 30% share of electricity supplies last month.

Further, the first of four planned reactors at Turkey's first nuclear power plant is just months away from beginning production.

Once operational, the Akkuyu plant will provide utilities with a fresh supply of clean power which can be deployed on command instead of gas or coal power to help balance system needs.

And there's more clean capacity in the works, with nearly 90% of the roughly 13,000 megawatts (MW) of new power capacity under construction or in pre-construction coming from clean energy sources, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

Nuclear plants represent the largest single source of new capacity in the near-term development pipeline, with around 4,800 MW being built.

Wind farms represent the next largest share of new capacity (2,460 MW), followed by solar farms with 1,336 MW, GEM data shows.

With only 890 MW of new gas capacity and 700 MW of new coal capacity being built, that means clean energy sources dominate the near-term development pipeline for Turkey's power firm, and will account for more than half of total capacity once complete.

That in turn leaves little scope for sustained gains by natural gas within the Turkish energy mix, even if the country's power demand growth continues to outpace regional and global peers.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

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(Reporting by Gavin Maguire; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)